Surprise Bullish Forecast For Aircraft Demand In China Issued By Boeing

United State based aircraft maker Boeing has surprisingly increased its industry wide Chinese sales forecast for a period of the next 20 years to a level that is higher than even the pre-Covid-19 levels despite very frim global estimates of demand for new aircraft to remain very slow for decades due to the hit of the novel coroanvirus pandemic.

According to the new forecast by Boeing, it will be expecting sell 8,600 new airplanes to Chinese airlines within the next 20 years which was valued at $1.4 trillion.

Compared to its forecast for the same made a year ago, this latest forecast was 7 per cent higher. 

According to analysts, this forecast is a signal of the fast recovery of the Chinese economy compared to that of the rest of the world from the pandemic hit. 

The Boeing forecast also completely contradicts its own forecast from a month ago of falling global demand. The company had cut its 10-year outlook for industry wide aircraft sales to 18,530 on a worldwide scale which was 11 per cent lower than what it had forecast in 2019 estimate. At that time, the company had also slashed its estimates for the 20 year period by 2 per cent compared to its previous year’s estimates, to 43,000 aircraft.

Estimates for industry wide aircraft demand in different regions of the world is regularly issued by Boeing.

Boeing’s expectation that passenger traffic in the Chinese market will rise much faster compared to the rest of the world formed the basis of the bullish view of the company about the Chinese market. The company said that it expected a 5.5 per cent annual growth in passenger traffic in China over the next 20 years while it expects ot see only a 4 per cent growth annually for the same for the world.

“While Covid-19 has severely impacted every passenger market worldwide, China’s fundamental growth drivers remain resilient and robust,” said Richard Wynne, Boeing’s managing director of China marketing.

Wynne also mentioned a number of positives of the Chinese market for the company’s bullish estimates for the market which included a much faster recovery from the pandemic than the rest of the world, coupled with continued government investment in transportation infrastructure, the large air travelling population of the country that would boost air traffic as well as “a flourishing domestic market”. All of these factors “mean this region of the world will thrive.”

There have been only 922 infections and three deaths in because of Covid-19 in the last month in China according to figures of Johns Hopkins University’s tracking of global Covid-19 cases. In comparison, 1,893 US Covid deaths were reported in the United States only on Wednesday.

The only major global economy to avoid a recession this year was China which is the second largest economy of the world. A number of measures which included very strict lockdown and population tracking policies and government funds for boosting consumer and infrastructure spending had helped the country to stage a very quick recovery from the pandemic hit.

(Adapted from CNN.com)

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