List of EU Countries that could follow the ‘Brexit’ Way

There can be a knock-on effect throughout Europe due to Brexit regardless of the outcome of the referendum, say analysts.

The consequences for the debate surrounding Brexit – irrespective of the outcome of One of the most significant referendums in recent British history, would have far reaching consequences specifically in Europe and throughout  the world in economical and political aspects.

This was partially revealed in a recent poll from YouGov that showed that a majority of people in six of the seven countries polled felt that more countries would choose to leave the EU if a Brexit occurred. This could leave a significant impact on Europe even as the results of rthe referendum on Brexit go this way or that.

With 66 percent of Danes, 57 percent of Norwegians and Sixty-nine percent of Swedes believed that it was likely there would be further exits from the EU “post-Brexit”.

“From the European perspective, the question of the outcome of the referendum is one thing, but I think if you take the broader picture then what the referendum shows is that you’re dealing with these euroskeptic and populist parties everywhere across the continent these days and so either way, whether the U.K. stays or leaves, I think that the main takeaway here is that the days of ever closer integration are basically over,” Carsten Nickel, a political risk analyst at Teneo Intelligence, told CNBC in an interview.

Paolo Dardanelli, senior lecturer in comparative politics and acting director of the Center for Federal Studies at the University of Kent says is of the opinion that even though the prospect of a Brexit triggering other countries in Europe to follow suit and decide to leave is not an immediate one, it would “certainly sow seeds of doubt”.

“Denmark and Sweden would be the ones to watch in particular, as their position would be significantly weakened,” Dardanelli added via email.

The Netherlands – in addition to Sweden and Denmark – would be watched closely, while the risk of countries pushing to leave was not immediate said Nickel.

If a conversation about leaving ever did take place, compared to other European countries that have been in weaker positions, these countries would be in a position of relative strength.

“You could argue that the conversation about this could be different in a place like Denmark, or Sweden or the Netherlands, where you’re looking at countries with well-functioning political institutions, and economies that are doing fairly well,” Nickel said.

Nickel says further that in conversations that tone seems to have been already set.

“You have this already, where you have a conversation where people say ‘we don’t want to be paying for south Europeans who are incapable of reforming their economy,’ so I think that’s a problem,” he went on to add.

“The notion that integration is Europe’s destiny and irreversible would be shattered” could be one of the four main consequences of a Brexit, Dardanelli said.

The further marginalization of EU members outside the euro zone, such as Denmark and Sweden, Germany finding itself “in an even more dominant position” whilst at the same time losing “a precious ally on issues such as economic reform, competitiveness, free trade and so forth” and Ireland – a member of the euro zone but also closely tied to the U.K. – finding itself “in an uncomfortable situation” could be among the other three consequences of a Brexit according to Dardanelli.

(Adapted from CNBC)

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