Apple is on track to overtake Samsung in annual smartphone shipments for the first time in nearly a decade and a half, marking a structural inflection point in the balance of power within the global handset industry. Analysts now estimate that Apple will ship more iPhones than Samsung ships smartphones in 2025, ending a dominance that the South Korean giant has held since the early days of Android’s rise. The shift reflects an unusual convergence of factors—an accelerating upgrade cycle, the strength of Apple’s premium strategy, the fragmentation of the Android market and intensifying pressure on Samsung’s lower-tier segments.

If realized, this moment would carry symbolic and strategic weight beyond a single year’s leaderboard. It would signal that Apple’s model, built around ecosystem entrenchment, premium branding and aggressive product segmentation, has reached a scale that allows it to challenge a manufacturer historically known for high-volume diversification. It also illustrates how consumer behavior has evolved in the post-pandemic era as buyers gravitate toward reliability, longevity and integrated digital experiences—areas where Apple has been able to expand its advantage.

A Strong iPhone 17 Cycle Pushes Apple Toward Record Shipments

The catalyst behind Apple’s ascent is the exceptional performance of the iPhone 17 lineup, which delivered a robust holiday season and significantly outperformed expectations in both mature and emerging markets. Early sales data from the United States showed double-digit growth in the first month of availability compared with last year’s launch cycle, reaffirming Apple’s grip on premium-category demand. Momentum in China—a historically volatile but strategically vital market—proved even stronger, with the iPhone 17 series recording nearly 20% higher early sales than its predecessor.

These gains reflect more than the appeal of a single flagship refresh. Analysts point to the broader replacement cycle that is now unfolding after millions of consumers purchased new devices during the pandemic era. Those phones are reaching the end of their practical lifespan, especially for users who rely heavily on advanced cameras, computational features and battery-intensive app ecosystems. Apple has benefited disproportionately from this trend because its user base is uniquely loyal and more inclined to upgrade within the same ecosystem.

The company’s ability to capture a surge in replacements is magnified by its layered product lineup. The addition of models such as the iPhone Air and forthcoming entry-level variants broadens Apple’s reach while maintaining the premium positioning that drives profitability. This strategy allows the firm to convert older-model owners and second-hand device users into first-party customers over time, reinforcing the circular demand that underpins its long-term shipment growth.

Furthermore, the weaker U.S. dollar and resilient global consumer sentiment provided favorable conditions for international sales. While tariffs have challenged smartphone makers across regions, Apple has faced relatively limited disruption due to diplomatic easing and supply-chain diversification. This stability helped preserve pricing power across major markets, giving Apple an advantage during a competitive launch window.

Samsung Faces Mounting Pressure as Chinese Rivals Surge in Key Segments

Samsung’s expected decline in market share is not the result of a single misstep but a reflection of intensifying competition in segments where it has historically excelled. While the company remains strong in premium devices through its Galaxy S and foldable lineups, its position in the low-to-mid-tier market has come under sustained pressure from Chinese manufacturers. Brands with aggressive pricing strategies and rapid innovation cycles have continued to eat into Samsung’s share across Southeast Asia, India, Latin America and parts of Europe.

These challengers benefit from local production arrangements, competitive component sourcing and increasingly sophisticated software ecosystems, enabling them to offer features that rival Samsung’s midrange devices at lower price points. The erosion of Samsung’s volume in these categories has a disproportionate impact on its global shipment tally, even if its flagship products remain well-regarded.

While Samsung still commands strong brand equity, the fragmentation of the Android ecosystem complicates its efforts to maintain leadership. The proliferation of aggressively priced 5G phones has reshaped expectations among consumers who prioritize value over brand familiarity. This environment makes it harder for Samsung to sustain high shipment numbers without deepening discounting, a strategy that can dilute margins over time.

Samsung’s focus on foldables has given it a technological edge in premium market segments, but the category remains niche relative to mainstream slab smartphones. Until foldables cross a mass-market price threshold, they cannot compensate for the losses in lower segments that drag on overall shipments.

The Rise of the Second-Hand iPhone Economy Strengthens Apple’s Dominance

One of the most significant structural advantages now working in Apple’s favor is the rapidly expanding secondary market for iPhones. Hundreds of millions of refurbished iPhones have circulated globally over the past two years, creating a large installed base of users who are highly likely to upgrade to new iPhones when they transition out of refurbished devices.

This second-hand ecosystem strengthens Apple in several ways. First, it keeps users anchored within the iOS environment. Second, it broadens Apple’s reach into emerging markets where price sensitivity is high, but aspirational demand remains strong. Third, it creates a pipeline of future upgraders that widens with every cycle of resold devices.

As consumers who purchased second-hand iPhones transition to new models over time, they contribute directly to Apple’s shipment momentum. This pattern reinforces the company’s long-standing strategy of focusing on durability, software longevity and hardware consistency—attributes that enable iPhones to maintain high resale value and extend their lifecycle far beyond typical smartphone norms.

Strategic Product Expansion and Forthcoming Innovations Will Shape Apple’s Lead

Looking ahead, industry analysts expect Apple’s momentum to continue through the decade due to ongoing product expansion and anticipated breakthroughs in design and software. The company is expected to introduce a new entry-level iPhone next year, designed to attract younger and cost-conscious buyers without eroding the brand’s premium identity. This approach mirrors Apple’s broader effort to diversify its portfolio across price tiers while maintaining ecosystem cohesion.

A foldable iPhone—long rumored and increasingly anticipated—could shift competitive dynamics in high-end categories. While Samsung currently leads in foldable innovation, Apple’s entry into the segment would likely stimulate mainstream adoption and expand premium-market spending. Similarly, upcoming changes to Siri and deeper integration of advanced on-device AI are expected to elevate the differentiation between iOS and Android, reinforcing Apple’s ecosystem moat.

Apple is also preparing a major design overhaul slated for 2027, signaling a new chapter in the evolution of the iPhone. These long-term developments indicate that Apple is not merely benefiting from cyclical trends but is leveraging structural strengths that are difficult for competitors to replicate.

In emerging markets, Apple’s multi-tier strategy—supported by payment plans, trade-in programs and an expanding retail footprint—is helping the company capture aspirational consumers who historically favored Android. As incomes rise and device lifecycles extend, these buyers are increasingly inclined to shift into the iOS environment, which amplifies Apple’s shipment base over time.

The widening preference for integrated ecosystems, cross-device compatibility and long-term software support continues to tilt market dynamics in Apple’s favor. With a substantial number of older devices due for replacement, a powerful upgrade cycle underway and diversification across price tiers accelerating, Apple is now structurally positioned to surpass Samsung in annual global smartphone shipments for the first time in 14 years—a milestone that reflects both market evolution and strategic execution.

(Adapted from MarketWatch.com)