The United States has asserted that India has halved its imports of Russian crude oil, signaling what it calls a major diplomatic success in curbing Moscow’s wartime revenues. Yet, on-the-ground data, refinery orders, and industry sources in New Delhi present a very different picture — one of steady purchases, rising import volumes, and no official directive from the Indian government to reduce Russian supplies. The conflicting narratives underscore how energy trade has become a strategic battlefield at the intersection of geopolitics, economic necessity, and diplomacy.

A Clash of Claims

A senior White House official told reporters that “Indian refiners have already cut Russian oil imports by 50%,” adding that the move followed “productive discussions” between Washington and an Indian delegation in the U.S. capital earlier this week. The statement, framed as a breakthrough in ongoing U.S.–India trade talks, was widely seen as a signal that American pressure on New Delhi to reduce its energy ties with Moscow was finally bearing fruit.

However, Indian industry officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, strongly disputed the U.S. account. According to them, no communication or policy directive has been issued by India’s oil ministry instructing refiners to scale back Russian purchases. “All our contracted cargoes for November and December are proceeding as planned,” said one senior executive at a state-run refinery. “There is no reduction, either requested or implemented.”

Data from global commodities tracker Kpler supports this position. It estimates India’s imports of Russian oil in October will rise nearly 20% month-on-month, reaching around 1.9 million barrels per day, as Russia increases exports following damage to its domestic refineries from Ukrainian drone strikes.

The U.S. Pressure Campaign

The divergence in accounts reflects a broader U.S. strategy under President Donald Trump’s administration to leverage trade policy as a means of shaping energy alliances. Washington has long criticized India for sustaining its purchases of discounted Russian oil — trade that has helped Moscow cushion the financial blow of Western sanctions imposed after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Trump has tied his tariff policy toward India directly to the country’s energy relationship with Russia. Nearly half of the 50% import tariffs imposed on Indian goods were described by U.S. officials as retaliation for “enabling Russian revenues.” The White House has repeatedly argued that by purchasing cut-rate Russian crude, New Delhi is indirectly funding Moscow’s war effort.

Nevertheless, Indian policymakers have maintained that their energy strategy is guided by national interests, not geopolitics. “Our responsibility is to the Indian consumer,” Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said earlier this year. “We will buy oil from wherever it is available at the most competitive rate.” That pragmatism has helped India weather global price shocks while keeping inflation in check.

The Political Optics of Energy Diplomacy

Trump’s claim that Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally assured him that India would “stop buying Russian oil” added another layer of confusion. India’s foreign ministry swiftly clarified that it was “not aware of any such conversation” between the two leaders. Meanwhile, U.S. officials continued to emphasize progress, portraying the purported cut as a goodwill gesture that could help revive the stalled trade negotiations between the two countries.

In Washington, officials see the issue as symbolic of broader strategic alignment. “Reducing Russian energy dependence is not just about sanctions — it’s about the values of our partnership,” one U.S. trade negotiator said. “If India wants deeper economic integration with the United States, this is the right moment to demonstrate leadership.”

However, on the Indian side, the perception is markedly different. Policymakers view the U.S. pressure campaign as overreach — an attempt to dictate commercial decisions that fall squarely within India’s sovereign economic domain. Officials privately note that New Delhi’s purchase of discounted Russian oil has been instrumental in stabilizing domestic fuel prices at a time when inflation remains politically sensitive.

Trade Talks and Tariff Tensions

The oil issue has become a sticking point in U.S.–India trade negotiations, which have otherwise struggled to make headway. Washington had initially sought to link tariff reductions on Indian exports to commitments by New Delhi to scale back its purchases from Moscow. But progress has been slow, and Trump’s tariff regime — among the steepest imposed on any U.S. trading partner — remains a source of friction.

When Modi visited the U.S. earlier this year, both leaders spoke optimistically about expanding bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 and doubling annual U.S. energy purchases to $25 billion. Yet these pledges have largely remained aspirational. India’s refiners continue to buy significant volumes of Russian crude because it is up to $10–$15 per barrel cheaper than Middle Eastern grades, allowing refiners to maintain profit margins even when global oil prices fluctuate.

For India, the calculus is simple: Russian crude, sold below the G7 price cap, represents an opportunity to secure affordable energy while insulating its economy from global market instability.

The Reality in Energy Flows

Despite U.S. rhetoric, trade data tells a consistent story. Russia accounted for 36% of India’s total oil imports in the six months through September, roughly 1.75 million barrels per day. That makes Moscow India’s single largest crude supplier — ahead of both Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Private and state-owned refiners such as Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum have locked in long-term contracts with Russian exporters. Even with payment complications stemming from sanctions and the currency settlement challenges, most transactions are conducted in dirhams, yuan, or rupees to sidestep U.S. dollar restrictions.

Moreover, refiners argue that diversifying away from Russian crude would require a restructuring of supply chains and refinery configurations — a process that could take months and raise costs substantially. Given India’s dependence on imported energy for over 85% of its crude needs, officials say abrupt changes are neither practical nor desirable.

Russia’s Confidence and Strategic Position

From Moscow’s perspective, India remains a critical customer and geopolitical partner. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed reports of declining Indian imports, asserting that Russia “can continue to offer energy at competitive rates to all partners.”

Indeed, Russia has used price flexibility as a diplomatic tool. By offering oil at significant discounts, it has expanded market share in Asia even as Western sanctions have closed access to traditional buyers in Europe. For the Kremlin, India’s continued purchases serve both economic and political goals — demonstrating that Western attempts to isolate Russia have fallen short.

Oil markets reacted cautiously to the conflicting signals. Brent crude futures fell slightly to around $60.58 per barrel, as traders weighed reports of diplomatic engagement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at de-escalating the war in Ukraine.

Analysts note that even if India were to cut imports, global prices might not rise sharply given the flexible re-routing of Russian oil to other markets such as China, Turkey, and Africa. “The crude trade has adapted remarkably well,” said one energy economist. “Every barrel not sold to India finds a buyer elsewhere — the issue is political, not logistical.”

Strategic Realignment and Future Outlook

The episode highlights how deeply energy trade is intertwined with geopolitics. For the United States, curbing India’s Russian oil imports is part of a broader campaign to limit Moscow’s global influence and reinforce Western sanctions. For India, however, maintaining diversified energy sources is central to its quest for strategic autonomy — the ability to engage with multiple power centers without aligning exclusively with any bloc.

While Washington portrays the supposed halving of imports as a diplomatic win, the data suggests India is still charting its own path — buying from Russia when prices are favorable, purchasing U.S. liquefied petroleum gas to balance trade, and pursuing long-term deals with Middle Eastern suppliers.

Ultimately, the contradiction between American claims and Indian realities reflects the enduring tension between political messaging and market fundamentals. For New Delhi, energy security remains non-negotiable — even when diplomacy demands restraint. For Washington, reducing Russian oil revenues is both an economic and ideological objective. Between the two, barrels continue to flow, reminding the world that in global energy politics, pragmatism often trumps pressure.

(Adapted from Daily-Sun.com)