As foldable phones gain traction and Huawei makes a comeback in the Chinese market, TF International Securities’ top Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that iPhone shipments will suffer this year.

According to Kuo’s blog post on Tuesday about his most recent supply chain survey, Apple, which for the first time last year emerged as the top smartphone vendor in China, reduced shipments of “key upstream semiconductor components” to about 200 million units, translating to a 15% year-over-year drop in iPhone shipments.

According to Kuo, Apple’s weekly shipments into China have decreased in the last few weeks by between 30% and 40% compared to the same time last year, “and this downward trend is expected to continue.”

“Apple may have the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands in 2024,” Kuo wrote.

The iPhone’s probable demise, according to Kuo, is mostly due to Huawei’s resurgence as a top smartphone manufacturer and the “growing preference for foldable phones among high-end users as their first choice” in the Chinese market. The market is changing as a result of new phone designs that incorporate generative artificial intelligence.

There were no comments on the issue from Apple.

According to Kuo, Samsung has increased shipments of its new Galaxy S24 series by 5% to 10% this year due to “higher-than-expected” demand for the device’s AI-powered capabilities. He continued, saying that Apple had cut its projection for iPhone 15 shipments in the first half of 2024.

According to Kuo, significant improvements to the iPhone’s design are not anticipated until 2025 “at the earliest.” Until then, Apple’s “shipment momentum and ecosystem growth” are anticipated to decline.

Apple is expected to release its quarterly earnings on Thursday. According to LSEG, previously Refinitiv, analysts are projecting revenue growth of just 0.6% to $117.91 billion from a year ago. Furthermore, average forecasts indicate that Apple will increase by single digits for the remainder of the year.

(Adapted from Paymnts.com)