The presidents of the two nations will get together in person this week for the second time since Joe Biden assumed office, capping another turbulent year of hostilities between the US and China.

Before the real presidential election cycle in the United States begins, this will be an uncommon gathering. One of the few issues on which both parties can agree these days is taking a firm stand against China, the world’s second-largest economy. Biden intends to seek re-election.

“The focus will be on expanding dialogue in order to low[er] tail risks in the relationship and prevent a crisis that neither leader is looking for,” said Michael Hirson, head of China Research at 22V Research.

“Flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea need to be managed carefully,” he said. “For that reason the meeting is still important, especially ahead of a politically charged 2024 that will begin with an important presidential election in Taiwan in January and end with the U.S. presidential election.”

Over the past few years, tensions between the United States and China have increased. Under the Trump administration, tariffs were the first step, and under the Biden administration, they have expanded to include greater tech restrictions.

How shaky relations have become was highlighted by the controversy over a purported Chinese surveillance balloon that was spotted floating in American airspace early in February; the event forced the two nations to halt their already-limited high-level meetings.

U.S.-China ties were described as appearing to be “caught in a worsening vicious cycle” in a report released in April by the Washington, D.C.-based think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies during that time of strained relations.

“This translates into a stalemate—and, in fact, spiraling tensions—that go even further than the typical ‘security dilemma,’ in which each side takes steps to defend itself which in turn generate insecurity for the other, who then responds in kind,” the report said.

After a high-stakes visit to Beijing by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in June, and subsequent trips by several other senior officials, sentiment started to improve over the summer.

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and five other senators from the Republican and Democratic parties in early October. The meeting lasted about eighty minutes.

However, more action is still desired by both parties.

“The current trend in China-U.S. relations is one of easing,” said Shen Yamei, director of the department for American Studies and an associate research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies.

“This easing is a relaxation of the atmosphere,” she said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. “No actual changes have occurred.”

She did, however, note that there is plenty to look forward to given the creation of numerous new communication channels.

Shen anticipates that the Chinese side would bring up US investment and export restrictions during this week’s meeting.

The Biden administration has attempted to reduce American investments in high-end Chinese technology by prohibiting American businesses from selling it to Chinese firms, mainly in the semiconductor industry.

During a trip in August, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo “said no” to China’s efforts to loosen the restrictions, referring to them as “matters of national security.”

According to state media, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng brought up the concerns in preliminary talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on November 10 in San Francisco.

“Aside from Taiwan, export controls are Beijing’s top concern, but there is no political space in Washington roll back existing controls,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director at consulting firm Teneo, said in a note.

“The immediate aftermath of the [Biden-Xi] meeting is likely to mark a cyclical high point for bilateral relations,” he said. “The key question is whether this high point extends into a plateau or whether political pressures trigger a new cycle of deterioration,” he said. “As previously discussed, the period since June has offered a window of opportunity to stabilize relations; following the meeting, this window may close.”

Taiwan’s presidential election is scheduled for January, and Beijing may become increasingly enraged if the winner supports greater independence.

Beijing views Taiwan as a part of its territory and denies it the freedom to independently pursue diplomatic ties. While maintaining informal ties with Taiwan, an island nation that exercises democratic self-governance, the United States acknowledges Beijing as the exclusive government of China.

In August 2021, Nancy Pelosi, who was then the speaker of the US House of Representatives, became the highest-ranking American official to visit Taiwan in 25 years. One of the remaining possible areas of collaboration, climate discussions between Beijing and the United States, were put on hold as a result of the visit.

According to the Biden administration, the United States and China are competitors, but they also want to make sure that the two countries “do not veer into conflict.”

“The Biden-Xi meeting might include a pledge to cooperate or establish a new formal bilateral working group on safe use of artificial intelligence,” Teneo’s Wildau said.

He added that “the two leaders may pledge to cooperate and coordinate on providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, ensure smooth passage of grain through the Black Sea, and support postwar reconstruction in Gaza and Ukraine.”

As a single nation, the United States continues to be China’s greatest trading partner.

Shen did, however, draw attention to the continued lack of trust between the US and China.

“No one believes what [the other] says now,” she said.

In the weeks preceding Biden and Xi’s scheduled summit in San Francisco on Wednesday local time, along with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting, goodwill efforts have intensified.

For instance, more direct flights are starting up again from a low base between the United States and China.

According to a statement from the American embassy in Beijing, Chinese commodities importers signed the first contracts since 2017 to purchase American agricultural products in large quantities in October.

A long-standing corporate gripe, China’s Ministry of Commerce said last week that it was collecting data to try and solve how domestic and foreign businesses are treated differently in China.

On the other hand, because their contract was about to expire, the three gigantic pandas that Beijing had loaned to the United States of America returned to China last week. China has used pandas as a diplomatic ploy by lending them to nations all around the world.

Furthermore, China just revealed Xi’s upcoming travel schedule on Friday night, during the Philadelphia Orchestra’s final performance in Beijing to mark the 50th anniversary of its 1973 concert there, setting up a pretty dramatic build-up to this week’s high-level meeting.

During that time, formal connections between the United States and Beijing, which is ruled by communists, began to take shape. In 1979, the two’s relationship became normal.

For the 50th anniversary concert, Biden and Xi each submitted notes, which were read before the performance. 

“Despite all the ups and downs, the Philadelphia Orchestra continues to come to China,” Matias Tarnopolsky, president and CEO of the Philadelphia Orchestra, told reporters after the concert on Friday.

“Even in the worst of times the Philadelphia Orchestra came and in the best of times the Philadelphia Orchestra came,” Tarnopolsky said. He said the orchestra plans to return to China in 2024, and in the years following.

(Adapted from CNBC.com)