Because of the robustness of the narrowbody market, which is driven by demand from low-cost carriers, American aircraft manufacturer Boeing modestly increased its 20-year prediction for new airliner deliveries.

Boeing estimates that between now and 2042, airlines will need to buy 42,595 aeroplanes, up from the 41,170 aircraft predicted in its previous 20-year forecast released last year.

The most recent forecast, which was made public on Sunday ahead of the Paris Airshow, remains below the 43,610 new planes expected as part of the market estimate for 2021 when Russian aircraft demand was taken into account.

With 32,420 single-aisle jets delivered through 2042, Boeing anticipates that narrowbody aircraft, like its 737 MAX or Airbus’s A320neo family of European rivals, will dominate aircraft deliveries.

Low-cost carriers, which plan to double the size of their present fleets, will be the primary drivers of this demand, according to Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, who briefed reporters before to the report’s release.

Also anticipated for delivery between now and 2042 are 7,440 widebody aircraft, 1,810 regional jets, and 925 freighters. According to Boeing, about half of all new jet deliveries will replace older models while the other half will expand airline fleets.

“The end of the recovery has played out largely as we’ve expected, with a few different nuances and dynamics,” such as a reduction in demand for regional jets compared to last year as interest in narrowbody planes grows, Hulst said.

By 2042, there should be 48,600 aircraft operating worldwide, nearly doubling from the estimated 24,500 in 2022. In 2041, a global fleet of 43,470 aircraft was forecast by the outlook from the previous year.

The company has marginally increased the predicted growth rate for passenger traffic across the entire industry from 3.8% to 4%. In addition, although the air freight business is currently taking “a little bit of a breather,” Hulst predicted that the anticipated 3% annual rise in commerce over the next 20 years will boost demand.

“I think we’ll again see how resilient the demand for air cargo is because it’s consistently around 3.5% to 4% growth,” he said.

Despite the continued decline in Chinese air traffic in 2022, Hulst stated that Boeing is still “very bullish” on the country, which will account for 20% of the market and another 22% of demand, along with the rest of Asia.

Airbus increased its delivery forecasts and predicted that 40,850 brand-new aircraft would be delivered to customers by the year 2042 in its own market prediction that was released on Wednesday.

(Adapted from Investing.com)