With the aim of loosing dependency on western aircraft manufacturers and because it is set to soon become the largest aviation market in the world, China has been striving to develop its own plane manufacturing industry for the past decade.

However there has been criticism of the aircrafts created by Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China – or Comac. And there are only but a handful who have strong convictions of Chinese companies being able to rivals Boeing and Airbus in short term. But the majority of analysts also agree that the established players could be challenged by the state-backed Comac in the longer time frame.

“Do not underestimate Chinese ability to penetrate markets,” says Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation advisory firm Endau Analytics. He believes that the dynamics of the aircraft manufacturing industry would have to accommodate a third player and shift from the conventional dual company fight and the third player would probably the Chinese.

So far, Comac has built two jets – the ARJ21 and the C919 – and is working with Russia on a third.

The 90 seater ARJ21 jet is the only one to be in service. The plans has however been rejected to be inferior in comparison to planes from competitors such as Brazil’s Embraer and Canada’s Bombardier after its development and manufacturing was hit by delays, and plagued with noise and other issues.

Teal Group aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia is among its critics. The concept that China would be the next big jet manufacturer was based on this company but it turned into an “overweight and stunningly obsolete product that has no relevance outside of China’s tiny regional airline sector”, he said.

Comac had got nearly 1,000 commitments its C919 – coming majorly from Chinese airlines and domestic leasing firms, shows data derived from consultancy Frost & Sullivan. That includes China’s three largest carriers Air China, China Southern and China Eastern.

Comac has been commissioned to fly by only China’s aviation regulator at present. Parts of Asia, Africa and South America that recognise Chinese certification could also see its aircrafts being used there.

However, a certification from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) would be necessary for the company to move beyond those regions. But there is no certainty of approvals from these two agencies.

“There is still a big question mark over whether it will receive a Western certification,” Flight Global’s Asia finance editor Ellis Taylor says.

He says Comac had hoped the ARJ21 would get FAA certification “but that has been shelved indefinitely”.

But even if it is not certified by those agencies, there is a huge and growing market for Comac to explore. It is widely expected that the aviation market of China would surpass that of the US and be the largest in the world by the mid-2020’s in terms of traffic. Currently China is majorly dependent on western manufacturers for supply of planes. However the current crisis over its Max 747 planes that is being faced by Boeing could force companies to show interest in local Chinese alternatives.

There can be growth for Comac’s C919 in China and abroad because of the issues faced by Boeing provided that C919 in China and abroad, said Frost & Sullivan aerospace consultant Ramesh Tanjavuru. “They could definitely fill the gap and be a significant player in China’s market,” he said.

(Adapted from BBC.com)