A debate among policy makers about their long-running stimulus programs has been intensified as Euro-area inflation accelerated more than forecast to effectively reach the European Central Bank’s goal.
Beating the 1.5 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey, and noting the the fastest since early 2013 was the 1.8 percent annual increase in consumer prices in January. Though the less-volatile core rate remains at just half that level, it is in line with the ECB’s goal of just below 2 percent for consumer prices.
Feeding into questions about the appropriate degree of monetary stimulus for the 19-nation currency bloc was the inflation pickup even though it was largely driven by higher oil prices. Though German policy makers have started to push for a discussion about winding down quantitative easing, underlying price pressures are still weak and he wants certainty that the acceleration will prove durable, ECB President Mario Draghi has repeatedly stressed.
“It’s very straight forward: Draghi laid out the criteria that make it clear that inflation has to be self-sustained, durable over time, and for the whole of the euro area,” said Frederik Ducrozet, senior economist at Banque Pictet & Cie SA in Geneva. “This is not what the ECB would consider price stability, even if the hawks get louder.”
In January, core inflation remained at 0.9 percent.
The euro traded at $1.0725 at 11:35 a.m. Frankfurt time and was little changed after the reports.
a temporary blip in inflation was envisaged by the ECB. It noted readings of 1.2 percent in each of the next two quarters, it forecast average price growth of 1.3 percent in the three months through March in December.
To assess the state of the region’s recovery, the ECB will have to rely on surveys and economic data until an update is published in March. Separate data on Tuesday showed the economy grew 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, in line with economists’ estimate and confidence jumped to a six-year high in January.
Noting the lowest level since mid-2009, the Eurostat data also showed unemployment fell to 9.6 percent in December. Compared to a year earlier, the economy expanded 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
Further ammunition to critics of the ECB’s ultra-expansionary policy stance in an election year was provided as prices increased 3 percent in Spain and German inflation accelerated to 1.9 percent at the start of the year. It may soon be time to phase out asset purchases, currently set to run until at least the end of the year, Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann have signaled.
As underlying price pressures remain subdued, others are urging for patience. Reasoning that the ECB’s Governing Council won’t make a decision on the future of QE until after the summer, while developments in Germany are monitored, monetary policy cannot cater to just one country, Ewald Nowotny said on Monday.
The impact of the U.K.’s strategy to exit the European Union and the implications of protectionist policies pursued by the U.S. administration would be weighed by officials in that time by such a stay. Elections in some of the region’s largest economies also add to uncertainty, with euro-skeptic parties gaining traction in opinion polls.
“Draghi is erring on the cautious side, but this type of data makes it harder for him to defend his position,” Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen, said before the reports were released. “New projections could force him into changing his tone.”
(Adapted from Bloomberg)









